“Intellectuals solve problems, geniuses prevent them.”
-Albert Einstein
EVERY TWO SECONDS there is a net increase of five people in the world population. This means one new classroom full of children every ten seconds and enough people to fill the seats of a large college football stadium every eight hours.
Every three weeks there are approximately four million more people on Earth, which is a number about equal to the population of the city of Los Angeles.
An important point to remember about population growth is that it increases exponentially not linearly. Understanding exponential growth is not always intuitive. Here is an example:
The population of our planet 1,000 years ago was less than a half a billion people. There are now approximately 7 billion people living on Earth. If the world population were to grow at the current rate of approximately 1% per year, in the next 1,000 years there would be over 100 trillion people on Earth, which would take more than 10,000 planets the size of ours to feed them.
Although the rate of increase in human population growth has slowed recently, we are still on track to have an estimated global population of around 9 billion by the year 2050.
Many scientists suggest that our Earth is already on a non-sustainable course at our current numbers. Stanford University population studies professor Paul Ehrlich believes that an optimal and sustainable number would be about one-fourth that of the current population.
Several countries already do not have enough arable land to feed their own citizens. And many regions must add large amounts of synthetic fertilizers to the soil to maintain the present high crop yields needed to feed their citizens.
Vast amounts of water are currently used for irrigation, which requires expensive energy to pump and distribute. There is also increasing salinity in the soils due to irrigation, rendering some farmland unproductive.
Water tables are dropping at rates that are orders of magnitude higher than they can be replaced. In the American Midwest, the enormous Ogallala Aquifer is quickly disappearing. This underground water supply is vital to the production of at least one-fifth of the total U.S. agricultural output.
Worldwide competition for many other natural resources – oil, metals, minerals, and clean drinking water – has the potential to greatly exacerbate geopolitical instabilities.
The Global Footprint Network states that we are currently using up more resources than the Earth can continue to provide, estimating that it takes our planet 1.5 years to regenerate the resources we consume in a single year.
Any victories in the fight against climate change, achieved by conservation or the increased use of clean energy sources, could easily be erased by an increase in population. This is especially concerning now, as citizens in developing nations are presently quite eager to adopt the luxurious and unsustainable lifestyle practices enjoyed by their developed world counterparts. The result is greater numbers of people each using greater levels of energy consumption – a recipe for disaster.
The Earth simply cannot healthfully sustain higher population numbers.
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There are three major ways to solve the world population dilemma. The first is to adjust cultural attitudes and beliefs regarding optimal family size; the second is to use effective birth control measures; and the third, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, is to decrease child mortality rates.
Changing Perceptions
There are many religions that actively promote large family sizes, either directly or indirectly (by discouraging all types of birth control other than abstinence or natural family planning). Leaders of these churches may wish to strongly reconsider their stance on this issue, particularly in light of current overpopulation concerns.
In many less affluent countries it is culturally encouraged for couples to have large families. This is often related to various forms of gender discrimination and a lack of education. In some locales, women are often coerced by their husbands and extended family to have more children. And in many societies male offspring are favored; therefore, the birth of a female child is often followed by another pregnancy in an attempt to produce a male heir.
Empowering girls, and boys, with the idea that a woman is an equal partner in her relationship – and that a smaller family size can actually be quite beneficial for everyone in her family – is an effective way to lower population levels. This is a perception that it is successfully changing in many places throughout the world, including Iran, Mexico, India, and Indonesia.
There are various effective forms of birth control to help limit population numbers. None of these are perfect methods — there is always some risk of pregnancy with sex. Even if precautionary measures are taken, it is always possible that one could end up with a larger family size than initially planned.
As a world average, a sustainable goal to aim toward would be just under two children per couple; bearing in mind that averages are made up of many different and acceptable numbers on each side of the line.
At this point in time, it is perhaps most reasonable to simply change perceptions of what constitutes an optimal number of children for a family. Widespread grassroots education programs can hopefully eliminate any future need for top-down policy legislation limiting family size.
Birth Control Options
Effective barrier devices to prevent pregnancy include diaphragms and condoms for females, and also condoms for males. Using a diaphragm is less effective than using a male condom for preventing pregnancy, and is ineffective at preventing sexually transmitted diseases.
Female condoms are not quite as reliable as male condoms, however they do work, and they reduce the risk of acquiring a sexually transmitted disease.
Male condoms are relatively inexpensive, have no hormonal side effects, and markedly decrease the risk of contracting sexually transmitted diseases – although a small risk of infection or pregnancy definitely remains.
Male condoms are highly effective at preventing pregnancy if used consistently and correctly. If used in addition to natural family planning strategies (temperature measurements, checking cervical mucus, and using a calendar method) the chance of pregnancy becomes even less.
Sterilization is another efficacious method of birth control. Vasectomy in males is a less invasive procedure than a tubal ligation is for females, although both are very effective. Implanted occlusive metal devices placed in the female fallopian tubes as an outpatient procedure is also a relatively new option.
Implanted intrauterine devices (IUD’s) are placed in the uterus by a trained clinician. This foreign body disrupts the endometrial lining of the uterus, making it an unsuitable home for the fertilized egg. There are some possible concerns with this type of birth control, as IUD’s can rarely be associated with infection or uterine perforation.
Another very effective method of birth control is that of hormonal manipulation. The methods of hormone dissemination include orally ingested medications (“the pill”), implanted hormone devices, injected hormones, and vaginal rings which release hormones. These methods offer no protection against sexually transmitted diseases. Hormonal manipulation strategies work quite well, however, there are always some risks involved when medically intervening in normal physiologic pathways.
Hormonal manipulation can be associated with unwanted side effects, which include an increased incidence of blood clots, strokes, and heart attacks. There are also concerns about an increased risk of mood disorders and depression associated with these types of contraceptives, as these medications have effects on brain cell function. The above risks may possibly be less of a concern than those associated with pregnancy and birth; however, safety comparisons should always be made with other available methods of contraception.
Improving Childhood Survival
The third major way to limit population growth involves decreasing child mortality, particularly by preventing common developing nation illnesses such as malaria and diarrhea.
At first glance the above statement may seem somewhat counterintuitive; but as the populace of a country becomes healthier, birth rates actually plummet. There are likely many reasons for this phenomenon and, tragically, one of the most prevalent is this: In many countries with poor childhood survival rates, parents realize the high likelihood that one or more of their children may die, and they therefore plan large families as a sort of insurance policy to help mitigate the personal, cultural, and economic effects of losing a child.
A Path Forward
It is imperative that all countries make a commitment to help decrease the world population; or at the very least attempt to keep the total number at its current level of 7 billion inhabitants.
To accomplish this objective, appropriate birth control measures must be widely accepted, inexpensive, and available. Through education, cultural perceptions regarding optimal family size must also continue to change. It is also imperative that donors and government agencies continue to focus on eradicating deadly maladies such as malaria, diarrhea, malnutrition, and vaccine-preventable diseases.
The leaders of many countries are still currently trying to increase their population base; as they want to ensure that there are enough young workers to financially support an aging populace, fuel the engine of perpetual economic growth, and provide military might. But chasing after continuous growth – in a population or an economy – is a fool’s errand.
The paradigm these leaders suggest would necessitate even greater numbers of people to support our youth as they themselves age, adding to a mass of humanity whose numbers would continue to spiral out of control. This would of course be associated with an increase in environmental degradation and a decrease in the amount of natural resources, each occurring in exponential fashion.
At some point, humanity must jump off of this dangerous ride. A system with finite resources simply cannot support continuous growth. Any plan that denies this truth is destined to failure.
Austrian demographic experts Erich Striessnig and Wolfgang Lutz evaluated worldwide economic considerations as well as environmental impacts as they relate to ideal fertility rates. Noting that better educated people are more productive and retire later, these demographers suggested that lowered fertility rates are indeed economically feasible, particularly if there is a concurrent increased investment in education.
Overall, they concluded that optimal fertility rates are 1.5-1.8 per woman of childbearing age; a number lower than the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1 (this number is greater than two because some children do not live to adulthood).
Advances in technology will certainly attenuate some of the pain of continuous growth. There will be efficiency gains in energy and possibly food production, and there will certainly be improvements in water filtration systems and pollution controls. But technological advances could also serve as distractions that take our eye of the ball, giving us a false sense of security, simply delaying for a few generations the inevitable ills associated with overpopulation.
Technology is also not a panacea, and it is quite likely that new advances would soon be overwhelmed by the inexorable tide of problems wrought by continued population growth. Perhaps the goal of technology should be to make lives even better for 7 billion (or less) people; not just tolerable for a population of 10 billion or more.
Several thousand years from now, future Earth inhabitants will still wish to enjoy bountiful food, fresh water, open spaces, and clean air. Their wellness and happiness depend on our actions. Sustainable global happiness will only be possible if we limit the growth of our population.
Eventually – through warfare, starvation, and disease – populations tend to limit themselves. But these scenarios are each of course associated with much suffering, and all the while the damage to the Earth would continue to mount. It would be much wiser to avoid these problems now rather than to look for solutions later.
As Albert Einstein said, “Intellectuals solve problems, geniuses prevent them.”