Greetings, my friends!
It has been a while since I posted a blog entry. I hope that you are all doing as well as possible in these difficult times.
I would like to share a few thoughts regarding the current COVID-19 pandemic:
We are now each involved in a precarious balancing act — requiring us to remain calm and confident in our abilities to handle this crisis, while at the same time understanding the immense importance of our personal and collective actions regarding risk mitigation. This virus has been moving very quickly, and what may have once seemed to be extreme precautionary measures just a few days ago, now appear to be quite prudent.
Three important facts to consider:
1) Many strains of coronavirus are reported to live up to nine days on some surfaces.
2) This virus could potentially infect up to 70% of the adult global population.
3) The fatality rate of infected persons over the age of 80 is reported to be almost 15%.
If we personally become infected, we may develop only a relatively mild or moderate illness from the virus; however, some of the people that we could inadvertently pass the virus on to may not fare so well. This includes our parents and grandparents, and other vulnerable populations.
It is possible that the above numbers represent the most dangerous scenarios. I cannot personally verify their accuracy — however, I do know that precautionary principles must always consider the most perilous of possibilities. Also, a crisis can certainly become much worse than predicted.
The most successful virus-fighting strategy in other countries has been to quarantine. Thankfully, we do not live in a totalitarian regime. However, in regards to quarantine, we should behave as if we do — self-quarantining as if we personally already have the virus and are forced to stay at home.
It is critical that we slow down the spread of this virus — “flattening the curve,” as many people have described it; spreading out the case load over a longer period of time. If we do not do this, we will overrun the capabilities of our hospitals to deliver care. The virus is here; we are now in damage-control mode.
Remember that it is crucial to stay at home as much as possible; and to gather in groups for emergency reasons only.
Know that our economy will undoubtedly take a tremendous hit from this event; but know also that our country has recovered from every financial crisis that we have faced — and that it will recover from this one as well. The stock market will also eventually go back up.
Individually, many people will incur other financial losses, either from shuttering their own business or not being able to work for others; but these losses can be offset by government responses such as tax rebates or other forms of compensation. This crisis is one of the very rare instances where increasing our national debt burden is an acceptable course of action. Individual non-recoverable financial losses incurred by at-risk populations must be absorbed into a more equitable and manageable collective loss.
We need to be extremely cautious, even employing procedures that some people may deem to be overly cautious — closing down nearly all non-life-essential brick and mortar businesses, and not re-opening them prematurely; utilizing technology to work from home; and gathering with other people in person only for very critical circumstances.
As a nation, money lost in this crisis is very likely to eventually come back to us —but the lives of vulnerable citizens potentially lost due to this event will not. Even if we do not get all of our money back, that is okay. My grandfather Aija once gave me some very sage advice, saying “If you can pay for it with money, it’s cheap.”
This crisis is emotionally difficult for each of us. But, please recall that there is a difference between concern and worry. Concern means to recognize the problem — and then roll up your sleeves and overcome it as effectively as possible. Worry means to wring your hands and imagine poor outcomes. This pandemic is an immense problem, to be sure; but we most definitely have the means to limit its severity.
Be concerned, and absolutely do your part to help — but try not to worry. This, too, shall pass. Start planning in your head, right now, some of the great adventures and gatherings that you will have this coming summer, with family and friends under bright sunny skies. In the meantime, enjoy springtime at home!
Randy
Coming soon! Photo from the garden of a neighbor, last Spring.